TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

I find it hard to trust any of the favorites in this allowance optional claimer. Digital Ops (#1) is arguably the most trustworthy option among the main players, but even he is coming off a layoff in this race, adding some uncertainty as to whether he can repeat his last effort. That most recent performance was a good one, chasing home stablemate Alexander Helios, who would return to win a graded stakes at Oaklawn. His early speed makes him dangerous, but he figures to get some pressure from Castle Island (#2) to his outside. What do we get from the top two finishers in the 2024 Wood Memorial, who both are trying to get back on track in this spot? Resilience (#5) and Society Man (#6) are coming off pretty disappointing effort earlier this year. The latter finished far behind Digital Ops in January without an apparent excuse. I'm a little more interested in Resilience, who got involved in a fast pace that fell apart going a mile last time. He probably needed such a taxing return effort, and should move forward here. It just remains to be seen if he's still the same horse we saw last spring. My top pick is Bramito (#4). This horse has been a sprinter for much of his career, but he was originally intended for longer races. He won his debut going 7 furlongs at Ellis Park in 2023, and then was immediately stretched out by former trainer Steve Asmussen. He's had limited dirt route chances since then, but I think he deserves another chance to go longer now that he's back in top form. Gustavo Rodriguez is 11 for 40 (28%, $2.94 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over 5 years. This horse also has a stride length and cadence to suggest that he should possess the versatility to stretch out around two turns.

Fair Value:
#4 BRAMITO, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4

With this race coming off the turf, the MTO runners figure to attract the bulk of support with Sagamore Mischief (#11)perhaps going favored. This runner has been in very good form lately and is getting some minor class relief after competing in an off the turf race at a higher level last time out. He has obviously improved since stretching out in distance this winter, and is the horse to beat. I'll just be interested to see how long he can hold this current form given that he was a cheaper claimer just a few starts ago. Tabeguache (#13) also makes some sense after rebounding last time with an improved effort. He had really tailed off while changing hands a few times this winter, but appears to be headed back in the right direction now. He's definitely a contender for dangerous connections. My top pick is his uncoupled stablemate Slip Mahoney (#12), who should be a better price. This horse was running races going back to 2023 that would make him a heavy favorite against a group like this. However, his form badly tailed off last season, and he had trouble even finishing a series of racing going back to last summer. However, he was intriguingly moved up in class off the claim last time for Ilkay Kantarmaci and showed some signs of his old self while turning back to a sprint distance. He got bumped at the start, but traveled well in behind the leaders and was trying to split horses in upper stretch before losing his path and getting forced to alter course. He eventually switched outside and rallied again across the wire, looking like a completely different horse than the one we had seen in recent starts. Now he's stretching back out to a distance that has worked for him in the past, and returning to a track over which he's had success. The price should still be fair even in light of that improved effort last time.

Fair Value:
#12 SLIP MAHONEY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

The scratch of Amundson diminishes my enthusiasm for this race because it drops the price one everyone else. Lost in Rome (#9) was claimed away from Rob Atras by Ilkay Kantarmaci last time out. These new connections have done very well first off the claim over the past year, so it would not be surprising if this runner is able to step forward here. He seems to run his best races when he can be forwardly placed, and he figures to get an aggressive ride from Manny Franco. My top pick is Cees Get Degrees (#11), who drops in class after trying the $32k level off the claim for Fernando Abreu last time. While Abreu does well first off the claim, he is also 7 for 25 (28%, $2.35 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. Yet the biggest factor in favor of this horse is his outside draw. He's gotten the rail post in each of his last two starts, and he clearly doesn’t appreciate racing inside of horses. Kendrick Carmouche was so intent on getting him out of an inside position two back that he dragged him completely out of the race. then last time he just never seemed comfortable flashing speed inside of horses. If he can get back to the form he displayed earlier this winter he will beat this field, and he gets an aggressive rider in Ricardo Santana on his back.

Fair Value:
#11 CEES GET DEGREES, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 10

Both of the likely favorites in this allowance haven't spent much time in the New York-bred ranks. I'm Wide Awake (#3) did start his career on this circuit as a younger horse, but he's been competing at a variety of circuits since then. He's a 7-time winner in this first-level allowance, but all of his victories since that debut win against state-breds have come in claiming or starter company, so he's still eligible for this spot. It appears that he was privately purchased after his last race, an astute acquisition given his eligibility for this condition. He did regress most recently, but he was contesting an extremely fast pace. He has the speed to make the front here, but there is plenty of other pace signed on, so he's not going to get some free ride up front. He's the horse to beat as he gets some minor class relief. I much prefer him to Ball Don't Lie (#7), who could take money again despite losing as the 2-5 favorite when he first tried New York-bred company last time. He had run some big races in California last year, but he didn't look like the same horse when he returned from a 10-month layoff this March, and he was similarly dull in New York last time. He did break poorly, but he still lacked the early speed we had seen from him early in his career. He's not for me. I'm interested in two alternatives. One of those is Fireballin (#6), who didn't earn much of a speed figure in his debut race, but did well to overcome a poor start with a big backstretch move. He failed to step forward much in either start against winners, again breaking slowly in both of those races. Yet he also faced some tough rivals in those races, and did at least display some improved tactical speed with blinkers added last time. Now he's been freshened, and returns with Lasix off some solid workouts. I'm expecting an improved effort. My top pick is Attorney Wade (#8), who ran like a horse that needed his debut experience when chasing a slow pace while getting some education racing behind horses. He was much more effective second time out, registering a decisive victory. Since then he really hasn't had a chance to do much, since he didn't get an ideal trip when he tried turf two back, and last time lost his rider at the start. I thought this horse was set up to pan out nicely after those first two starts, and he can rebound here at a fair price.

Fair Value:
#8 ATTORNEY WADE, at 6-1 or greater
#6 FIREBALLIN, at 7-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

Race 4
#7 ELIMINATE, at 4-1 or greater

Race 5
#7 PENATHLON, at 5-1 or greater

Race 7
#2 CRAZY MASON, at 9-2 or greater

Race 11
#1 BIG TRUZZ, at 7-1 or greater
#9 NEOEQUOS, at 7-1 or greater

Race 13
#6 BAEZA, at 3-1 or greater

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

There's some chatter about a few first time starters in this loaded 7-furlong maiden affair. That group is arguably led by the other half of the entry Endorse (#1A). She had been working very well down in Florida, including a workout where she kept pace with the talented Disruptor. She was entered on Derby weekend at Churchill, but was a vet scratch, forcing her to miss some time. She has since gotten back into a regular pattern and figures to run well if she shows her talent in the afternoon. Lost Horizon (#9) reportedly has some ability as she debuts for Chad Brown. This Into Mischief-sire daughter of Grade 1 winner Wow Cat certainly is bred to be a nice horse. However, Chad doesn't always have his firsters cranked up to deliver their best on debut, and this one may want more ground. The firster who intrigues me most is Resurge (#11), another with a stellar pedigree, out of the multiple G1 winner and $2.7 million earner Close Hatches. That makes her a half-sister to Grade 1 winner graded stakes winner Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down. Her May 24 workout was pretty impressive, as she easily outworked turf horse Simulate while never asked for much. She's drawn well outside and Bill Mott can have one ready to debut. Some may view it as a bad sign that Joel Rosario is on this one with Junior Alvarado is on the other firster, but Joel Rosario was the regular rider for dam Close Hatches. The Pletcher/Repole entry figures to attract plenty of support because second time starter Numbered (#1) is part of the entry. She lost at even money going a distance that may be too short for her after getting bumped at the start. She raced awkwardly and greenly thereafter, staying on at one pace late. A little added distance should help her, but I wonder how she'll negotiate a bigger field this time. My top pick is Surprise (#6), who is the horse with experience that I want to bet. She met a very good field at Keeneland, from which a few horses have already come back to win or improve their speed figures. She had to be taken in hand early while settling and lost some position to the half-mile pole. That seemed to be a good learning experience, and Brad Cox tends to do better with second time starters than he does on debut. Manny Franco also should be a good fit for a horse who may need some help from the rider to stay focused. I'm expecting a more professional effort with blinkers going on.

Fair Value:
#6 SURPRISE, at 9-2 or greater
#11 RESURGE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

It's pretty clear that Works for Me (#3) will win this race if able to produce his best effort. Performances like the one he put forth to dead heat for victory in the Turf Sprint Championship last November are on another level from today's competition. Yet now he's being asked to cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs, which might be a little sharp for him. He tried this distance in the Mahony last summer, and got completely outrun in the early stages. Perhaps he's put that tendency to disengage early in his races behind him, but cutting back in distance could still place him farther off the pace than he's been in his best efforts. There does appear to be a fair amount of speed in this field, which should help set up the late run of a true closer like Run Curtis Run (#4). He had a significant trip when he last competed on this circuit in November of last year, as he got off to a poor start and then was stuck 4 to 5-wide on the far turn. He again broke slowly when he returned last time at Keeneland, but stayed on well to get up for third while never threatening for the victory. That's the biggest issue for Run Curtis Run. He just hasn't visited the winner's circle that much in the past couple of seasons, so he seems more likely for a minor award. My top pick is Bonus Move (#6), who turns back to a turf sprint. All of his prior turf sprint attempts have been over the 5-furlong configuration at Gulfstream. He ran a big race when he made his turf debut at that trip last season, but his three subsequent efforts on turf at that distance were mildly disappointing. Yet he didn't get pace to close into on Feb. 2, and he appears to be improving since then. He set an honest pace going a mile on Mar. 29, in a race won by the talented Sherlock's Jewel. Then last time he fought gamely to the wire on dirt even though that may not be his preferred surface. I like him cutting back slightly, and I think this 5 1/2 furlong distance at Saratoga could work out for him. He's been successful rallying from off the pace before, and I think he's finally landing in the right spot.

Fair Value:
#6 BONUS MOVE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this first-level allowance race, sending out the likely favorite and a horse who could vie for second choice. Strategic Focus (#6) is the focal point of this race, as he steps up against winners for the first time following an encouraging debut victory. He earned a strong speed figure for that win, and those he defeated have since come back to validate the number, if not flatter it. The major question for this colt is the stretch-out to 9 furlongs in just his second career start. He doesn't exactly strike me as a classic distance type, utilizing a strong turn of foot to win on debut rather than grinding stamina. Furthermore, Chad Brown is typically a terrible bet with these types of runners. He is 11 for 66 (17%) with last-out debut winners on dirt over 5 years, but the ROI is just $0.87 on $2 wager, suggesting that these horses are wildly overbet. I prefer Brown's other runner Malarchuk (#2). This colt has been a little disappointing in his last few starts, but he's been rated in all of those races. He never had a chance to get forward when he returned at Gulfstream in January, since he blew the start. And he hasn't been ridden that aggressively the last two times. I expect that plan to change here with the blinkers going on and him stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles. Flavien Prat is great at placing his horses tactically, and Malarchuk's best chance is to go to the front and utilize his high cruising speed. These two are probably the two most likely winners, but I want to look elsewhere for value. Longtime readers of this column will be aware that I have an affinity for Unbridled Bomber (#1), so feel free to dismiss this as a biased opinion. Yet it's undeniable that this gelding has races from his past that would beat this field. He obviously went off form late in the 2023 season, and he was hardly competitive in any race he contested last year. Yet he was claimed away from his former connections this winter, and a change of scenery can sometimes wake up runners with back class. I thought he showed some subtle signs of life off the claim and layoff for Oscar Barrera last time. He traveled strongly in behind the leaders but was compromised by a slow pace. He moved outside approaching the quarter pole but couldn't produce a finishing kick in a race dominated up front. He's always been best over longer distances, so I like him stretching back out to 9 furlongs. He's spotted at a realistic level, and he is reunited with Jose Ortiz, one of the jockeys who has had the most success with him in the past. At a massive price, I'll take one more swing.

Fair Value:
#1 UNBRIDLED BOMBER, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7

Mystifying (#3) should be a handful in this first-level turf allowance after just missing in her first two attempts at this level. She was beaten by subsequent stakes winner Child of the Moon in her first turf attempt here last summer, and then she ran into another strong rival last time when she came off the layoff at Keeneland, as winner Expensive Queen returned to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Gamely next time out. Mystifying got a pretty good trip last time, but she still showed a nice turn of foot when she bore through a tight spot between horses in upper stretch. She clearly has talent, and deserves to be favored in this spot. I also think the other horse exiting that April 18 race at Keeneland has a right to factor here. Unreasonable (#12) was making her U.S. debut while also coming off a layoff, and she ran like a horse who needed the race while also not working out an ideal trip. She broke from a wide post, and had to launch a 4-wide far turn move into contention before flattening out in the late stages. She has a right to do better second off the layoff for Miguel Clement. My top pick is Hope Mission (#1), who might get dismissed at a fair price in such a deep and competitive race. She is one of two Brendan Walsh trainees in here coming off allowance losses at Churchill Downs, but I'm willing to give this filly a pass for her last race. She got too far back in the early stages over a very hard and firm course, and she just never seemed to be striding comfortably over the surface. Churchill's grass course isn't for every horse, and she was trying to stay on late but just never seemed to extend her stride. She had run much better two back at Fair Grounds, making an eye-catching move to the lead in upper stretch to draw away with authority. That form was flattered when the runner-up returned to win her next start at Churchill. She showed ability on dirt early on, but her female family is all turf, out of a dam who was Group 1-placed in Europe. She's drawn inside this time and should work out a better pocket trip.

Fair Value:
#1 HOPE MISSION, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

Earlier this season it was expected that Thorpedo Anna would cast a long shadow over all of the major events in the older female division, including this Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. However, an uncharacteristically poor showing in the La Troienne last time out has her regrouping rather than competing this weekend. That makes this year's Phipps a highly competitive affair lacking a standout. The two rivals who chased home Thorpedo Anna to complete the trifecta in last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff figure to vie for favoritism. Candied (#5) achieved the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field, a 118, when taking down the Allaire Du Pont at Pimlico as a heavy favorite. She had been mildly disappointing in her seasonal debut at Keeneland, but she apparently needed that start and bounced back to form last time. She's obviously a contender, but I slightly prefer main rival Raging Sea (#4). This Chad Brown mare earned the second Grade 1 victory of her career when upsetting Thorpedo Anna to win the La Troienne on Derby weekend. The race didn't come up particularly fast and she got a perfect trip. Yet that was just 1 1/16 miles, and she's at her best going this 9-furlong distance, the same trip over which she won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at the expense of Idiomatic last summer. Raging Sea is reliable and consistent, and seems like a deserving favorite. I just want to get a little more creative with an alternative from the La Troienne. Dorth Vader (#1) finished behind the two Chad Brown runners last time, but there's an argument to be made that she was unlucky not to win the race. She had to steady slightly into the clubhouse turn as Randomized crossed over to lead the field, and proceeded to get rank when settling into the pocket thereafter. She worked out a good trip to the quarter pole, but then tried to come through an opening on the rail before Joel Rosario on the leader shut off that path. John Velazquez was forced to take up and alter course, but Dorth Vader was still running on strongly despite encountering more traffic at the wire. She clearly took a big step forward second off the layoff, and she had shown this kind of talent during her 3-year-old season when just missing with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the 2023 Acorn. She figures to get somewhat overlooked on the tote board, and should be a serious threat as long as she works out a better trip this time.

Fair Value:
#1 DORTH VADER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 12

I don't have any major knocks against She Feels Pretty (#8), who has been so good lately, especially since Cherie DeVaux added blinkers to her equipment in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup last year. She has won each start since then by daylight margins even when she doesn't work out an ideal trip, such as in last year's American Oaks. She returned from the layoff for her 4-year-old campaign with another big effort in the Modesty at Churchill. She's now stepping up into a Grade 1, but I don't think this race came up that tougher than the last one. My only concern with her is that John Velazquez rides her with so much confidence, and he may be content to sit a wide trip from this outside draw. Once again, her main rival appears to be Gimme a Nother (#3), who could do no better than a second-place finish in the Modesty, beaten just over two lengths. I did think that Jose Ortiz wasn't riding her with much urgency last time, as she rated behind a moderate pace, and was eased back approaching the quarter pole before moving outside to launch her rally. She was finishing best of all late, but just had too much ground to make up. I think she can close the gap a bit here, but it's unclear if she can improve enough to turn the tables. If I'm taking a shot against the favorite, the horse I want to bet is Bellezza (#6). She was beating much weaker in the Sheepshead Bay last time, but that was her first start in the United States following a layoff, and she had kept some good form overseas without quite putting it all together. She really had no business winning the Sheepshead Bay given the way that race unfolded, the early pace run at a crawl with the entire field sprinting home. Yet she unleashed a powerful turn of foot when asked in upper stretch, running her final quarter in 22.26 seconds, according to Gmax, over a course that was hardly producing times that quick. I don't mind the slight turnback to 1 3/16 miles, and she figures to be a playable price in the face of the favorite, despite picking up Flavien Prat.

Fair Value:
#6 BELLEZZA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 13

One of the keys to handicapping this Just a Game is rewatching the Jenny Wiley, which four contenders exit. Excellent Truth (#8) probably should have won that race after getting steadied in mid-stretch when winner Choisya (#9) drifted into her path. However, had she won, Excellent Truth would have been successful with an absolutely perfect trip, since she got to follow Choisya into the race while both saved ground every step of the way. Excellent Truth had strong form in Europe last year, and has a right to step forward second off the layoff. I don't expect her to offer much value as the favorite, but I do believe she's the most likely winner. I'm less confident in Choisya, who seemed primed for a peak effort last time and may not get the same trip breaking from the outside here. Kehoe Beach (#5) was hardly disgraced finishing third in the Wiley, especially after drifting wide on both turns, leaving room for the top two to come through in upper stretch. I'm just concerned that she may have company up front here with the fleet longshot Do Gooder drawn to her outside. With the scratch of my original top pick, I'm happy to upgrade Dynamic Pricing (#1). She won the Beaugay off the layoff last time despite working out a tough trip. She tried to launch a wide run on the far turn, but got floated out badly at the top of the stretch by a drifting frontrunner. She lost ground in that incident, but still unleashed a strong finish to get up for the victory. It's not the first time she's had to endure a wide trip, and she's coming into this race with a chance to work out a much better journey from this inside post. I'm definitely using her. 

Fair Value:
#1 DYNAMIC PRICING, at 6-1 or greater