TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The two likely favorites in this opener both have questions to answer. Master of Arms (#5) exits a victory against $10k claimers last time, and now moves back up in class to the $16k level. While Antonio Arriaga has had success off the claim, his stats with short prices making this move leave something to be desired, and isn't so easy to claim off Linda Rice. Ten Cent Town (#7) also figures to attract support as he moves into the Linda Rice barn. However, she's slashing his claiming price in half following a disappointing effort last time out. Rice has good statistics making this drop off the claim, but this horse has struggled to find the winner's circle recently. My top pick is Screaming Uncle (#4), who I have to try one more time after he was chasing outside against a minor rail bias on Nov. 29. The previously stamina-challenged Looms Boldly was carried along by the racetrack to wire that field, and Screaming Uncle understandably tired after chasing in the 2-path. He has occasionally run races that would give him a big chance here, and it's been a while since he's competed this cheaply.

RACE 2

Wesley Ward runners typically attract plenty of attention when they ship in to the NYRA circuit, and Floodlites (#1) is another that should prove popular with the bettors. He was only defeating $80k conditioned claimers that day, but it was a relatively strong field for the level. It was just the second dirt start of his career, and it looked like he really appreciated getting back on this surface. The likely leader is Sacrosanct (#6), but he's tough to trust after disappointing in his only appearance this year. It's possible that he was a precocious two-year-old that just hasn't gone on, and the fact that Linda Rice doesn't name one of her primary riders might be a red flag. I prefer her other runner Ranger Battalion (#5), who has been well managed since Rice claimed him for $50k this spring. He picked up plenty of checks against starter allowance foes before breaking through at that level last time. His recent performances are slightly better than they look on paper, since he moved too soon into a fast pace two back, and last time closed into a slow pace. He should stack up well against a group that isn't that strong for the level. My top pick is My Mitole (#4), who returns on short rest, having just competed a week ago on Cigar Mile day. While that was also an N1X allowance, this race didn't come up nearly as tough as last week's contest. He was facing future stakes horse Life and Times, and no one could get close to that dominant winner. While he was never winning that race, the post position and ride didn't do My Mitole any favors. He was hung outside right from the start, and Flavien Prat made little attempt to save ground, handling him very conservatively while content to lose ground into the lane. He did ultimately set him down in the stretch, and he actually finished with good interest. He also ran better than it seems two back when he was wide against a minor rail bias. I don't mind him turning back, and he's reunited with the jockey who piloted him to both career victories.

RACE 3

Crossingthechannel (#3) will obviously be a handful against this group if he replicates that debut effort at Laurel, for which he earned a 79 Beyer and even more impressive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was defeated by a fellow first time starter that day, so it's hard to assess the quality of that race. He was competing over a muddy track, so he will have to prove he can handle fast going here. I prefer Fightforallegiance (#5), who showed promise despite racing greenly on debut. He failed to step forward when he stretched out in distance second time out for Linda Rice, but perhaps this son of Violence didn't really appreciate the added ground. He also never seemed comfortable racing inside of horses that day, and Kendrick Carmouche basically wrapped up on him at the quarter pole. It seemed like he had more to give, and Kendrick didn't appear to ask him for a full effort. I like him turning back now that he showed the ability to display better early speed, and he gets a rider switch to the more aggressive Ruben Silvera. There are also firsters to consider. Funky See Funky Do (#6) might take money for the dangerous Chad Summers barn based on some quick works, including a 46 3/5 drill that was in company with the barn's recent debut winner Game for It. I prefer Right to Party (#7), a $325k yearling buy for Chester Broman. It's interesting that this colt was given to Ken McPeek, since his assistant Jimmy Jerkens used to train some nice horses for Broman. McPeek's 2-year-old's under Jimmy's care have fared well in New York all season, and it would hardly be a surprise if this one were ready first time out.

RACE 4

I'm not inclined to give a second chance to Coffee Talk (#3), who may go favored again as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. This horse has that one maiden-breaking effort at Keeneland that would make him pretty tough against this field. However, his surrounding form isn't particularly convincing, and he was disappointing last time despite getting a good trip on top of a moderate pace. Sir Kartrite (#5) exits that same race and can obviously win, but he's another who benefited from a friendly pace scenario. The front end figures to be much more hotly contested this time. That's a reason why I downgraded Social Hour (#2), who exits a fast victory here 8 days ago. Yet he may not be quick enough to make the lead this time, and he enjoyed a very soft lead after one of his main pace rivals failed to break last time. I prefer two horses coming out of the Nov. 1 race at this level won by Three B's. The pace may not look that fast on paper, but it completely fell apart for closers. Uncle Jim (#4) didn't break that well and had to rush up to lead before fading only as the race fell apart late. He shows pretty solid recent form for Horacio De Paz, whose barn has subtly been doing very well between here and Turfway in recent weeks. I also like him turning back to 6 furlongs. The other horse exiting that race that I want to use is Timaeus (#7). He got caught very wide chasing Uncle Jim early, and never caught that foe before throwing in the towel late. However, he may benefit from race flow here if the pace comes apart. He has an opportunity to rate off the leaders and finish, a style he's used with success sprinting in the past. He figures to be the better price and I like that there's no drop in class for a horse who has raced against cheaper before.

RACE 5

I have some reservations about Flat On (#5) at what figures to be a short price. He is making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who takes him back after she trained him for a few starts earlier this year. He did get back into decent form for Rudy since dropping to this level in his last few starts. However, I didn't think he had a major excuse last time, and the form of that race wasn't exactly flattered when Whiskey N Soda was uncompetitive against tougher earlier this week. Awesome Empire (#8) was second in that same race. He'll benefit from any pace that develops here, but he was no match for a couple of today's rivals going this distance two back. He might have improved off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio last time, but I suspect that's the best he has to offer right now. I prefer the other closer Smilensaycheese (#9), who stretches out to a mile for the first time since getting claimed by Linda Rice. He failed to handle this distance early in his career, but I suspect he's better equipped to go this far now that Rice has him heading in the right direction. He may be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but he's just so hard to trust, since he gets out badly on the turns and doesn't always appear to have his mind on running. I have to bet Confabulation (#4), whose last race isn't nearly as bad as it looks on paper. That Nov. 7 affair featured a total pace collapse, as he was part of a 3-way early duel for the lead in a race dominated by closers. The margin of defeat was exaggerated by the fact that he was basically eased in the stretch. He had been in better form prior to that, and actually beat Flat On at this level two back. There is other speed in here, but he can rate successfully, and he gets an interesting rider switch to Christopher Elliott, who has had success for this barn.

RACE 6

I found it hard to look past the two likely favorites in this maiden affair. Liberty's Advance (#2) is obviously the horse to beat in her current form. She ran well on debut in a stakes at Finger Lakes that hasn't exactly been flattered by runbacks. Yet she's validated her own form in two subsequent starts. She cut back to a sprint in her first try against maidens last time, and was a little unlucky to lose after getting held up in traffic on the far turn. That form was bolstered when the winner returned to take down a $500k NYSS stake with a 77 Beyer. She's the most likely winner, but I do think Hire the Hat (#9) is a serious rival. She got a good education on debut, have to adapt to rating tactics after breaking slowly. She angled wide on the turn and was staying on mildly late behind a runaway winner in a race of decent quality. She should fare better here with that experience under her belt.

RACE 7

Weigh the Risks (#3) has done very little wrong since getting onto dry dirt surfaces in her last 5 starts. Her only loss during that time was a second-place finish in stakes company back in February when she was chasing outside against a rail bias. She put in a huge effort to win with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure this summer at Saratoga, and then scored in workmanlike fashion coming off another layoff last time. I suppose it's a good sign that she's now finally putting races back to back with no layoff. She also figures to play out as the controlling speed in this small field. She'll be hard to beat, but I do wonder if she's better on faster ground than the demanding surface she'll encounter today. Stonewall Star (#6) ran well last time in a race that her trainer suspected she would need off the layoff. That sprint distance was a little short for her, and she has run some of her best races going a mile over this course in the past. She would be dangerous if she steps forward for this hot barn. I have to give one more chance to Scalable (#2), who lost to Weigh the Risks last time. She just ran out of ground closing over 7 furlongs after getting badly outrun early. That tendency to walk out of the gate has been an issue in both starts so far this fall, but her finishing ability suggests that a mile should help her cause. She won over a similarly slow and demanding surface in the Interborough last year, so I'm hoping that this track highlights her superior stamina.

RACE 8

My original top pick was scratch from this race, so I'm left with two short-priced options that I don't really want. Chad Brown's remaining runner Collect the Data (#5) will probably go favored off a facile victory against New York-breds last time. A repeat of that effort will make her tough here, but she had everything her own way up front that day. She proved vulnerable when challenged early two back, and there is certainly other speed to keep her honest up front in this spot. One of those rivals is the other favorite Save Us Melania (#1). Her best effort would probably put her in the winner's circle even ahead of Collect the Data. However, it's hard to know exactly when we're going to see her show up with a top performance. She lacks consistency, and she really needs the right kind of trip to get this mile distance. I'm concerned she could prove vulnerable late if she's under the gun from the rail. Given my distrust of these two favorites, I'll upgrade Rice's other runner Yankee Doodle (#10), who comes back into this barn from Finger Lakes. She has undoubtedly faced weaker competition in her recent starts, but I'm encouraged by her finishing ability. She's always hitting her best stride in the final eighth of a mile, and she beat a decent rival last time when taking down the in-form Ekwanok. Ruben Silvera seems like a good fit for a filly who needs some encouragement to gain early position, and I suspect she's going to excel over the tiring surface she'll encounter. She is bred to be a nice racehorse, out of a stakes-winning dam who has produced Grade 1-placed half-sister Taxed.

RACE 9

I don't have a major knock against Princess Becca (#5) in this finale. She had a right to need that return from the layoff last time where she obviously got tired after contesting the pace. This 7-furlong distance is perfect for her, and she doesn't need the lead to be successful. She's a logical contender, but probably a deserving favorite. I just slightly prefer a rival who is probably better than her last race indicates. Clearwater Beach (#7) made her first start on dirt in that Nov. 21 race at this level, and she finished a non-threatening fourth. However, I didn't think she was positioned to achieve the best result. She had more early speed than she was allowed to show, ridden very conservatively to get taken back to last in the early stages. She traveled well on the turn, but then was kept inside to weaver through traffic and kickback in the lane. That's a tough trip for a horse who has never been on dirt before. The pace was also on the slower side, so she was against dynamics. I expect she can do better in a race with more early speed, and I don't mind the slight cutback. I would also use Graceful Rose (#10), who was attempting to close in that same race last time. She's had more chances and generally settles for minor awards. Yet her recent form is a bit better than it appears and she does figure to be a square price.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There isn't much convincing dirt form in this maiden claiming opener. Kid Rich (#1) took a ton of money to go favored in his dirt debut last time coming off a lackluster effort on turf first time out. He was never a serious threat, but he was chasing a fast pace and got pushed wide on the far turn. He should continue improving on dirt here as he drops in to face a weaker bunch. Never Say Uncle (#4) is mildly intriguing switching to dirt, since he actually has much more pedigree for this surface. I just thought he looked a little more turf-inclined on debut, and he also strikes me as a horse who will want to run route distances down the line. He should at least be picking up pieces late.

RACE 2

I had a hard time making picks in this race because it's hard to offer a strong defense of anyone. I supposeTomschickenfingers (#6) is the horse to beat in his current form, but I liked him getting back on turf last time since his prior turf effort was better than it looked. I still think he's a little better on that surface, but he might be good enough to win this dirt race that come up quite weak for the level. I'll give the slight edge to proven dirt horse Speightful Storm (#1), who has been facing much tougher fields at this level in recent starts. He's nothing special, but this subtle drop in class should be enough to put him in the winner's circle.

RACE 3

Former rivals Pinky Brier (#5) and St. Brigid's Cross (#6) are now stablemates with both having been claimed by Brad Cox. I doubt the two of them will hook up early given the common connections, which may give a slight advantage to Pinky Brier. I have to upgrade them after the scratch of Lady Rose. Rina's Revenge (#2) is the other contender to consider, but she's been pretty disappointing since an encouraging maiden win at Saratoga. She's obviously a contender after the scratch.

RACE 4

Tatania (#6) is likely to attract attention in this one-mile maiden affair as she stretches out for the first time. She's certainly bred to go longer, but I just wonder how good she really is. She was compromised by a slow pace on debut at Churchill, but I still wanted to see her show a little more spark in the stretch of that race. Chad Brown has good statistics stretching out second time starters, but this filly is liable to get overbet with Flavien Prat taking over the mount. My Sherrona (#2) showed dirt ability here last winter, finishing second in a trio of races, culminating with a stakes-placing in the Busanda. Her dirt return at Saratoga this summer was a step backwards, but she had a right to need that race while facing a tough field off the layoff. She's since gotten back into form on turf, but she should handle this transition back to the main track. A couple of other players are exiting the Nov. 12 race for these same conditions. She's a Gemma (#4) vied for favoritism that day, and showed improved speed to contest the pace before tiring to finish fourth. That was her first start in over 9 months, and she's likely to move forward with that race under her belt. She's drawn well outside of her two main pace rivals. The horse that I would rather bet from that Nov. 12 affair is Trango Tower (#5), who finished ahead of She's a Gemma and figures to be a better price once again. I thought she ran better than it looks to close into a slow pace two back, and last time she stayed on well after a wide trip. That most recent start was her first outing for Linda Rice's barn, and I don't think Linda had her in the stable for very long prior to that race. She had been training with Chad Brown's team at Monmouth as recently as mid-October, and showed no local works for Linda prior to that start. She had a right to need the race given the less than ideal preparation, and can move forward now that she's had more time in the new program.

RACE 5

In a race where I don't have a particularly strong opinion on any of those with experience, I'll try first time starter Pop Goes the Wiz (#1). This Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old purchase looked quick working 10 1/5 at the sale last year. It's obviously taken a while for him to get to the races, but he shows a quick gate drill back in October. He's out of a dam who on won debut, and David Duggan can have a first time starter ready to fire. The rail draw isn't ideal, but I can overlook that if he's a square price. Among those with experience, Fiddling Felix (#6) probably owns the best form. I don't totally trust this 0 for 10 maiden to finally find his way to the winner's circle, but he has faced some better field than this one in recent starts. He should also appreciate the cutback I distance after failing to finish going a mile the last two times. There really isn't anyone else in here that I want. Horses like Gualillo (#3) and Alias (#4) will take money because of connections, but the form for both leaves something to be desired.

RACE 6

It's worth just drawing a line through the last race of She's Complicated (#8), since her antics prior to that start robbed her of any chance to be competitive. She basically ran off in the warm-up despite the attempted restraint of Kendrick Carmouche, heading down the backstretch at a full gallop before getting briefly apprehended. She then took off again when pursued by outriders, completing more than a full circuit of the track before coming to a stop. She probably should have been scratched, because it was clear that she had little left to offer during the actual race. She had previously dominated a field of N2L claimers for this price tag. This N3L condition isn't quite that soft, but at least she's dropping down to a realistic level. This filly has shown herself to be pretty fainthearted, so she tends to run her fastest races when she's facing inferior foes. This is the kind of level at which her talent can shine, and the one-mile distance allows her to get into a comfortable rhythm. The others do little for me. Mitole's Girl (#5) is obviously taking a big class drop, but her form has really tailed off lately, and I'm not convinced that she's at her best going this one-mile distance. Queen in the Deck (#3) is mildly interesting on the class relief angle. Even though she wasn't facing the greatest fields in her last couple of starts, she did meet better rivals going back to the spring of this year when she was consistently racing on dirt. She's now making just her second start off the claim for dangerous connections.

RACE 7

Among the horses who could take money here, the one that I don't really want is Toga Dan (#8), who faced a weaker field at this level last time and still got run down despite taking a clear lead into deep stretch. Senegal (#2) finished ahead of that rival the last two times they met at the allowance level, and seems more appealing now that he's dropping back down to this level. Good Bali (#6) is another dropping in class. He's coming off a lackluster effort at Keeneland, but that was a speed-dominated race like so many two-turn affairs over the Keeneland dirt. Linda Rice places him realistically in his first start for this barn, and he would be tough if able to get back to either of his July dirt effort at Ellis Park. My top pick is Magni (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for Charlie Baker. His last outing was mildly disappointing, but he ran well two back when he got back on dirt at this level. As I've noted previously, this barn has really turned things around at Finger Lakes lately, and that success is starting to bleed onto the NYRA scene. Baker doesn't claim that much, but he does have solid stats with new acquisitions on the dirt. This is just the second horse he's claimed for this owner. The first one, Takechargesmiling, ran a career-best speed figure to just miss by a nose first off the claim.

RACE 8

Perhaps it's a fool's errand trying to beat Party in the Army (#5), who in all four prior starts has earned Beyers that are higher than those anyone else in this field has ever produced. His most recent start was probably his best, as he contested a fast pace and dug in to battle back when challenged by closers late, only losing a head bob in the end. I do wonder if we've already seen the best he has to offer, but he probably won't need to improve at all to beat this group. I just have some interest in the horse that dueling with him up front last time. Pure Mischief (#8) had encountered a very tough maiden field on debut when chasing home stakes winner Bravaro. He actually showed some late interest after getting outrun early. He displayed much improved early speed last time when gunned forward from the rail. He paid the price late, getting very tired in the stretch. However, I do think he could take another step forward here, utilizing the tactical speed more effectively from a better outside post.