TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

If he repeats his recent speed figures, Runandscore (#4) could be a handful for this group. However, it's a little tough to trust him to bring that Pennsylvania and Maryland form to New York. While he did earn his two best TimeformUS Speed Figures, 108 and 106, in his last two starts, those were two-turn races at Penn National and Laurel. This is a drastic turn back to 6 furlongs, and he probably isn't fast enough to contest the pace with other speed drawn outside of him. One speedy rival who I prefer is Stewie (#6). If you can excuse his one poor effort from January, where he was coming off a layoff and unable to get forward after bobbling at the start, he's run well in all of his surrounding races. He was especially game to finish third against a tougher field at this level last time, with a strong 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He appears to have held his form since the trainer switch to Jamie Begg, and he probably won't be favored. My top pick is On the Hill (#3). I know it looks like he regressed last time, but I just don't think the trip worked out. Kendrick Carmouche tried to be aggressive and secure the lead from the slow-starting Kid Billy, but that rival rushed up and outran him. From there, On the Hill seemed uncomfortable between horses and got shuffled back into the lane before staying on late. He has been pretty consistent, and he has more versatility than that. I'm expecting a better effort this time at what should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#3 ON THE HILL, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

I don't have a major knock against Smooth Breeze (#5), who beat New York-breds on debut at Saratoga last summer before trying some tough open company stakes fields. He was pretty green in the stretch of the Pilgrim, but he rebounded with a more professional effort in the Central Park, just missing against a strong field. He returned from a layoff in the Colonel Liam at Gulfstream and was very disappointing. However, he got the wrong trip, chasing 3-wide without cover throughout. He appeared to be more keen with blinkers on that day, and those come off here as he also gets back in against New York-breds and adds Lasix. He's the logical horse to beat at a short price with Flavien Prat getting aboard. The other Gulfstream shipper Pay the Juice (#9) will also appreciate getting back in against state-bred company, but he has some things to prove on turf at this level, and he drew a tougher outside post position. I'm taking a shot against these 3-year-olds with The Paddock Pastor (#3), who makes his first start off a trainer switch to Amelia Green. I like what this barn has done with the horses its taken over in recent months, and this gelding appeared to be rounding back into form last time at Fair Grounds. He did get some pace to close into, but he still launched an eye-catching rally. He flattened out slightly at the very end, but I won't fault him for losing to the in-form Sabi, who has won 4 of his last 7 starts. He handled some give in the ground on debut, and is supposed to get some pace to set up his late run as he returns to New York.

Fair Value:
#3 THE PADDOCK PASTOR, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I'm not trying to beat Laurelin (#2) even as one of the favorites as she returns from a layoff in the Memories of Silver. This Graham Motion trainee had displayed serious talent winning both starts during her two-year-old season. Her debut victory was so much better than the margin of victory might suggest, as she made multiple moves during the race. She had to advance from the back of the pack into a stalking position onto the backstretch, and then moved again to challenge the leaders before pulling clear late. She also didn't get an ideal trip in her second start when she moved up to face stakes company in the Tepin. She was pushed wide on the backstretch and proceeded to advance without cover on the second turn before kicking past the leaders in the lane. She was given plenty of time off during her winter break, but she returns with a consistent string of workouts for this comeback. Graham Motion is one of the best in the game off layoffs like this, winning with 20 of 92 runners off 120 to 240 day breaks in turf routes over 5 years, for a $2.85 ROI. I much prefer her to the other filly who could be vying for favoritism, Virgin Colada (#9). She ran some nice races during her juvenile season, but failed to progress after turning head on debut at Saratoga. She lost her next two stakes attempts as the favorite, even when getting a great trip in the Miss Grillo. The trip didn't work out in the Breeders' Cup last time, where she encountered serious trouble on the first turn. I just still have some questions about her overall ability and upside at a short price. Italian Soiree (#3) is a bigger price that I would consider throwing into exotics. She hasn't hit the board in either turf attempt, but she got a very tough wide trip in the Jessamine, and performed better than the result suggests. The longshot that I would key underneath is Burner Account (#8). She obviously has some questions to answer switching back to turf, but she was intended to be a turf horse early in her career for trainer Mark Casse. She didn't handle the dirt when she first got over it for new connections, but she has steadily improved over the last several months. She set a very fast pace in her last effort and did well to hold on for third, outrunning her odds for the third start in a row. I think she deserves another chance on turf given her pedigree and recent improvement. She also could play out as the controlling speed.

Fair Value:
#2 LAURELIN, at 6-5 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The entry of Costa Terra (#1) and Alternate Reality (#1A) looks pretty formidable at first glance, since they finished first and second in a race at this level last time and now race as a pair for wagering purposes. However, they are a pair whose form is relatively exposed, with Alternate Reality having gotten back to better form for his prior connections and Costa Terra rebounding slightly off the claim for Brad Cox. Neither one ran some remarkable race last time, and this feels like a deeper spot. Tabegauche (#5) is an intriguing candidate to turn the tables on those two as he makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantmarci. He didn't seem comfortable racing inside of rivals when he got swarmed at the quarter pole last time, but he did battle back in the late stages. His early speed figures to play well here, perched outside of the often fainthearted Smile Mon. My top pick is Just Call Ray (#4), who returns to this level after finishing second gong 9 furlongs for this price tag two back. That was probably a little too far for him, and he caught a very sharp rival in Bold Endeavor that day. He came back against a pretty tough field at Colonial last time and raced a bit too freely on the front end before getting reeled in late. He's better from a stalking position, and he figures to get his preferred trip here. He's run plenty of races that make him good enough to beat this group, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#4 JUST CALL RAY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

I'm not keen to take a short price on Margaux Treasure (#4), who looks fairly obvious as she moves back into New York-bred company. She ran fine in a couple of dirt races against tougher competition last year, but I can't say that I was thrilled with either of her efforts over the winter at Gulfstream, albeit on a different surface. She doesn't possess much early speed, but is dropping down to the right level. Moontown (#9) is the other logical dropdown to consider, but she really didn't show much in her debut back in February. Linda Rice once did better with this move, but she is 0 for 11 with maiden second time starters going from maiden special weights to maiden claimers over the last 5 years. Khali's Storm (#8) seems like a candidate to fare a bit better in this spot as she cuts back in distance. A mile has always been a stretch for this filly, but she fought on bravely for third despite getting tired in her last start. She ran some races a year ago that suggested she should be good enough to beat a field at this level, and she may be ready to take a step forward at her best distance. My top pick is Eleni (#3), who tried this level for the first time when dropping in class in her last start. She settled for second as the favorite behind longshot winner Royal Event, which some might hold against her. Yet that rival came back to win again with a faster speed figure at another big price. Eleni had held her own against maiden special weight foes in some prior starts, and now gets Lasix for the first time. She possesses dangerous speed in a race where you probably want to be forward, and is coming off a bullet work.

Fair Value:
#3 ELENI, at 5-1 or greater
#8 KHALI'S STORM, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 6

This Woodhaven is a highly competitive affair where you can make a case for all 7 runners. Given the confusing nature of this race, I could see some handicappers just defaulting to connections with Septarian (#1). Yet there is more to like about this gelding than him being trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat. He's shown ability on dirt, and really didn't run that badly against a tough field when stretched out in the Risen Star last time. While Protonico isn't a noteworthy turf influence, the dam's family is all European turf breeding. His dam is actually a half-sister to a winner of the Group 1 Prix du Cadran over 2 1/2 miles on grass in France. Chad Brown worked him on turf twice at Payson Park to give him confidence to enter here. Brown is also 8 for 33 (24%, $2.72 ROI) with non-maidens trying turf for the first time in routes over 5 years. End of Romance (#2) has some things to prove at this level, but he did show some promise racing in England last year. His stateside debut was decent, even though he lacked late punch after making an initial move. Now he gets back on turf, a surface he's definitely bred for as a half-brother to $27 million-earning globetrotter Romantic Warrior. My top pick is Sounds Like a Plan (#7), who figures to go back to the frontrunning tactics that worked for him in his turf debut. He set an honest pace that day and never gave anyone else a chance, earning a strong 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He stepped up against open company in a similar spot to this when he tried the Central Park late last year, and I thought he ran better than the result suggests. He stalked inside and took a bump when attempting to angle out at the quarter pole, which kept him inside for the stretch drive. The race was dominated by outside closers, so he did well to stay on for fourth at the rail. He has to be ready off the layoff, but the price should compensate.

Fair Value:
#7 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

With this race coming off the turf, I don't want to default to a short price on Walk With Me (#8). I tried this filly last time and was pretty disappointed that she failed to step forward second off the layoff stretching back out to her preferred distance. This is a slightly softer field after scratches, but now she's encountering a wet track, which she failed to handle last year. She also takes blinkers off, so she may not be as forwardly placed in a race lacking pace. I believe the horse to beat and catch is Lady Wisdom (#2). She led from gate to wire beating an inferior group of maidens two back, but earned a respectable 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was simply overmatched in stakes company last time, but now lands in an appropriate spot where her speed should carry her a long way. She's been working well for a dangerous barn. My top pick is Cara's Dreamweaver (#3), who obviously has to get a little faster to upset those two aforementioned contenders. Yet I think she's getting subtle class relief in this spot. She's been chasing home the likes of Army Gal, Bam's Bliss Kiss, and Valtellina, all rivals who are better than those she encounters in this spot. It's not as if she threw in the towel in any of those races, running consistent speed figures while simply overmatched. She figures to be a square price and she fits this race well after some key scratches.

Fair Value:
#3 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

After scratches, a couple of runners drawn towards the outside could attract support. Both Toscano (#12) and Brigade Commander (#14) were entered for turf but have strong dirt form. I much prefer the former, who ran pretty well over a sloppy track last time at Fair Grounds. I can see why Mike Maker wanted to take a shot on the turf, but he just fits this race well now that it's come off. I'm less convinced about Brigade Commander, who has been disappointing in both dirt starts for Ray Handal. He once had the ability to crush this field, but he's turned into more of a turf runner recently. I also wonder if he's fully cranked to handle a mile on dirt off the bench. Scat Tu Tap (#2) is a logical contender but not exactly a winning type given his 2 for 30 career record. He handled a wet track reasonably well last time, though the race didn't come up very fast. I'm sticking with my same top pick on turf even with this race coming off the grass. Omey Island (#7)was interesting getting back on turf, but I think he fits this race just as well on dirt. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is still predicting that he will be on a clear lead without much early pressure. He tried to stretch his speed to 9 furlongs on dirt last time, and he just couldn't quite see out the distance. However, he did run the best dirt race of his career in defeat, proving that his visually impressive 12-length maiden score in January was no fluke. Some may hold his sloppy track performance in December against him, but he was coming off a long layoff that day and was pushed through a very fast opening quarter. He's clearly gained fitness since then, and I think he deserves another chance over a wet track now that he's in top form.

Fair Value:
#7 OMEY ISLAND, at 4-1 or greater