TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary opinion in this race is that I don't wany any part of Prospector (#4), who could vie for favoritism as he faces New York-breds for the first time. He did face some decent fields down at Gulfstream, but he showed no early speed and was just totally one-paced in both of those starts. Even though he has some sprint pedigree, he doesn't strike me as a horse that wants to go shorter. There are a few firsters to consider, of which Blue Roof Beau (#1) seems most appealing. He's by Beau Liam, who has gotten some precocious progeny. I'll try to beat these horses with the more experienced Hurricane Kaz (#6). He tried stakes company last time and actually ran quite well chasing a very fast pace two back. His race going this distance back in January would probably beat this field and I don't think he's necessarily lost that form since.

RACE 2

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Remi's Moon (#6), who makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. I thought he lost some position going a mile last time before staying on belatedly. He should benefit from getting Manny Franco back aboard here, and he's proven he fits at this level. Sheriff Bianco (#1) isn't as good as he once was, but he was facing tougher allowance optional claiming foes last time and can be effective here if he runs as well as he did over a fast track two back. They're the main two for me.

RACE 3

I'm not thrilled with either of the runners who finished behind Illmatic on debut back in February. Both Judge Boushay (#6) and Sfumato (#4) disappointed in subsequent starts, and the number for that debut may have been slightly inflated in retrospect. I prefer others coming from different directions. Anderman (#1) looks cheap for these having started out in maiden claiming races, but he's improved with each start for Greg Sacco. He strikes me as a horse that really wants this stretch-out in distance, and his most recent TimeformUS Speed Figure of 91 is the highest dirt speed figure in this field. I just think there's a little more upside with my top pick, King Farro (#3). This horse took very little money when he debuted last October, but he ran a nice race behind a pair of talented foes. He was given plenty of time thereafter, but now he returns as a new gelding while receiving a rider upgrade. His worktab seems strong and he looked like a horse that was built to route in that debut performance.

RACE 4

I struggled with this race because all of the main players have their positives and negatives. Of those trying turf for the first time, Right Timing (#3) might be most convincing going out for Chad Brown, who has excellent statistics with these types. She has quite a bit of turf pedigree going back through her female family, and it's possible this is the surface she's wanted all along. The problem is that she's going to be a short price purely based on connections. Jordan's Love (#4) also has enough turf pedigree, though I wonder how much talent she has. She's not the biggest and hasn't struck me as one with a ton of upside in her first couple of starts. Quadrate (#5) seems likely to run better after an educational debut. She was off a step slowly and stuck 3-wide with no cover for much of her journey. I'm just not sure she'll improve enough to graduate second time out. River Ride (#1) ran well on turf in her debut, but I didn't think much of that field. I put Chartist (#2) on top without a ton of conviction. She has plenty of turf pedigree, and she really seemed to step forward with the switch to synthetic last time, in a race that was rained off the turf. Most notably, she finally broke better and showed improved early speed, which should serve her well here.

RACE 5

This is another race where I didn't have a particularly strong opinion. Snide (#2) is probably the horse to beat in her current form. Her lone poor effort of this form cycle came when she was wide against a gold rail on Feb. 13. Otherwise she's run races that make her highly competitive here. My top pick is Point of Reference (#5), who makes just the third start of her career. I didn't love the maiden field she was beating last time, but she finished up nicely after showing improved early speed. The third-place finisher did return to improve significantly in her subsequent start. This filly has to get faster, but is likely to keep improving. Perhaps the best horse in the race is P Mutter Pickle (#1). She returns from a layoff switching into the barn of Amelia Green, which automatically makes her interesting. She already ran well enough last year to suggest she could beat a field like this. She hasn't run her best races off layoffs in the past, but that could change with the new barn.

RACE 6

Nothing clever here. I'm not trying to beat Coordinator (#2) in the second start of his career. This Juddmonte homebred caught a very tough field on debut at Keeneland, chasing home West End Kid and Heeere's Johnny. The former looks stakes-bound after winning against at Churchill this week, and the latter is already graded stakes-placed. Coordinator was a bit keen early but finished well inside. Chad Brown has great stats with second time starters and this one should prove too tough for this group if he steps forward at all. The main rivals didn't do enough for me, though I do think Glavine (#8) has a chance to improve on his modest debut speed figure from last summer. He was wide throughout in a slow-paced race, but finished well.

RACE 7

Here's another race where I had trouble looking past the logical choices. I didn't think much of I'm Ready to Go (#5)when he won his career debut here last year, but he clearly took a step forward during the time away. He nearly beat a tough field at this level off the bench in March, making a wide bid into contention before just getting run down by the in-form winner Porosity. The horses who finished right around him have all returned to run well, flattering the form. He's drawn well outside of the other speed here and gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat. He's obvious, but a likely winner nonetheless. I prefer him to Bold Strength (#1), who ran well against another tough rival at this level last time but did benefit from a forward trip in a moderately paced race. I thought he might not respond as well to potentially getting outrun from the rail this time. Sansone (#7) interests me more coming out of that same race. He didn't get the most comfortable trip getting buried inside early in a race dominated up front. He adds blinkers and should perform better here, but I'm still not sure that he's quite as talented as the top pick.

RACE 8

I expect one of the 3-year-olds to win this first-level allowance for state-breds. Stickupwithoutagun (#6) ran off when he returned from a layoff last time, as Chris Elliott was unable to keep him reined in early. He went too fast and paid the price late. I think he can do better here, but I question the stretch-out to a mile since he strikes me as a horse that would prefer shorter distances. The mile definitely works for my top pick Who's Your Zaddy (#3). He needs to get a bit faster to beat the two aforementioned rivals, but not that much faster. He ran well against a track bias on debut and won going away last time out. The waters get deeper here, but he should appreciate whatever pace develops and I think he still has upside for a dangerous barn.

RACE 9

Inspeightofcharlie (#1) is probably the horse to beat as he returns to New York as an improved 4-year-old. This gelding showed some potential when he got on turf against state-breds last year but the trips didn't always work out. He obviously progressed down in Florida this winter, culminating with a professional victory once he was put back on turf last time. He did get a great trip that day, but if he comes close to repeating that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure he will probably prove too tough for this field to handle. The main rivals are 3-year-olds who probably have a little more upside but all require some improvement. Jack's World (#9) was a work in progress when he began his career at Saratoga last summer, but I liked the way he developed in subsequent turf starts. He got a wide trip on Nov. 8 and then put it all together when last seen breaking his maiden. Linda Rice doesn't have the best statistics off layoffs, but it would hardly be a surprise if he moved forward again. I'm more intrigued by the pair of horses for Horacio De Paz, both of which are also 3-year-olds returning from layoffs. Tim and Sam (#7) hasn't displayed the brilliance of some others in this field and got a perfect trip when he broke his maiden two back. Yet he was compromised by a poor start in the Notebook last time and appears to be working forwardly for his return. My top pick is A Little At First (#5), who put in a nice late run sprinting on debut before stretching out. He ran well closing belatedly after a rough beginning and wide trip in October before everything came together for his maiden score in November. I liked the way he was able to sit closer to the early pace that day and still produce his strong finishing kick. Horacio De Paz is 13 for 63 (21%, $2.59 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs on turf over the last 5 years.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There are a couple of first time starters to consider, but I'm not trying to beat Karley B (#4), who probably should have graduated on debut. She actually had some speed but was steadied soon after the start breaking from the rail. She lost position down the backstretch, but rallied well inside to get up for third, even while getting put in a bit tight through the late stages. She figures to make better use of that early speed she hinted at on debut. The other horse I would use is the experienced Kaz Farm Girl (#1). She was never in great position last time after a stumbling break, and found herself chasing wide in the mud two back. She has that Jan. 10 race that makes her competitive here and there have been some minor excuses since then.

RACE 2

Perhaps this race is just as simple as Arizona Territory (#5) figuring things out after his educational debut, as he did look like a horse with some talent when he broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs last time. He isn't catching the toughest field for his first test against winners, but he is going to be a very short price for a horse who doesn't have any significant edge on paper. I'm not way against him, but I do think there is one intriguing alternative. Print (#1) had been pegged as a turf horse early on, since that's what his pedigree strongly suggests. He's out of a very good stakes-quality turf dam and is a half-brother to this barn's top turf runner Daunt. The odd thing is that he's really improved on dirt recently, but he may just be a horse who is maturing with age. He ran very well behind the talented Tariff Mindset two back, and last time displayed a nice turn of foot to slip through inside and put that field away. He runs like a turf horse on the dirt, so I'm intrigued by him switching back to the surface he was aimed at early on.

RACE 3

Red Miller (#4) figures to inherit favoritism after the scratch of Shellac. He's been in solid form lately and gets needed class relief as he returns from a short break. However, his lack of early speed is a minor concern in a race that doesn't feature much pace. I'll instead go with the recent strong form of Solomini's World (#3). This 3-year-old has more upside than his rivals and appears to be improving quickly. He exits a sloppy track effort that was better than it looks on March 5, a race that has proven to be stronger than it appeared at the time. He put it all together last time with a front-running win, and that speed should play well again here.

RACE 4

I had trouble looking past the three logical favorites in here. Dividend Recap (#3) has the fastest prior races, but the two long gaps in her form have to raise some concerns as she makes just the fifth start of her career now well into her 5-year-old season. She was sold at auction last summer for $80k but stays with Miguel Clement. That 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her very much the one to beat, but she did benefit from an absolutely perfect trip that day at Saratoga. Both of her main rivals are 3-year-olds with solid form from their juvenile seasons. I'm a little skeptical of Cosmic Candy Girl (#6) going the 1 1/16 miles even though she won at this trip last year. She travels well in her races, but she's not the strongest finisher and I didn't like the way she shut down late last time off the layoff. I'll instead go with Neshika (#5) on top. She has some things to clean up from her 2-year-old season, since she wasn't the easiest to ride. She was best when closing with a rush to break her maiden after some trouble at the quarter pole. Then last time she got spun out into the center of the course when lauching her rally in the Key Cents. Picking up Flavien Prat shouldn't hurt.

RACE 5

There appears to be plenty of speed in this first-level allowance optional claimer, with no fewer than 4 runners doing their best work from the front end. Included in that pace equation is Minute by Minute (#3), who returns from a layoff for Chad Brown. You generally don't have to worry about time away for runners from this barn. However, she does seem like a horse who was cranked up to win on debut last September in a race dominated up front with a moderate pace. I wonder how much she can progress in her 3-year-old debut, especially since I haven't been thrilled with some of her workouts down at Payson Park. Roman Grace (#8) could benefit from drawing outside of all the other speed, though I wonder if she really wants to pass horses. She's just not a turf horse, so I won't hold the last race against her. My biggest knock is that she took advantage of a track bias when she won at this level in February. Army Gal (#2) is the logical horse to beat given that pace scenario, and she might be the best horse in the race anyway. However, she does have to overcome a layoff for Linda Rice, and her form had tailed off a bit into the end of last season before going to the sidelines. I would just rather bet Linda Rice's other runner Next On Stage (#4) at a bigger price. This is a step up in class, but I was encouraged by the way she navigated traffic and finished strongly into a moderate pace last time out. She wasn't always a horse that could rally from off the pace, but she used that style in her victory first off the claim for Rice. She's been away for a couple of months since then but she's been working pretty consistently. She has both form and speed figures from last summer that suggest she fits at this level.

RACE 6

The stakes action kicks off with this John A. Nerud. One Nine Hundred (#5) figures to be a short price picking up Prat, but I didn't think he necessarily had to win here. He was in great form upon returning from a layoff last fall, but I didn't love that he lost at such a short price without apparent excuse in the Tom Fool. There's other pace in here to keep him company up front once again. Full Moon Madness (#2) defeated him last time, but I don't love that this horse has been entered and scratched since then, and the spotty worktab adds to my concern. Radio Red (#1) should sit a good trip in behind, and I think he's better than that slow final time might suggest in his Haynesfield victory. I like him turning back to 6 furlongs. My top pick is Durante (#6). There was a time when this horse was running big races sprinting over the Aqueduct dirt. He's obviously taken his show on the road in recent years, and his form has tailed off a bit on the way into this. However, I would argue that he's been keeping the best company of anyone in this field, and the subtle class relief he's getting here shouldn’t be underestimated. He was sharper with the blinkers going on last time, and drew very well outside of other speed.

RACE 7

I don't have a major argument against Eunomia (#3), who will be pretty tough for this field to beat if she runs back to her Doubledogdare effort. I don't mind the slight turnback to a mile at all, and she's got tactical speed without needing to be in front. That versatility should serve her well with speed drawn outside. Some will go for main rival Inefficiency (#5), but this filly still has a lot to prove after beating up on smaller, weaker fields in her first couple of starts. I did like the way she finished last time, but I suspect she'll be overbet. I would rather try to beat Eunomia with her stablemate Dazzling Move (#4). She's obviously been off form lately, but I can make some excuses for her. She lost all chance at the start of the Apple Blossom last time, breaking slowly and getting rank. She actually didn't run badly at all in the Inside Information two back against a much tougher field than this one, and a repeat of that effort makes her a major player here. I like her getting back to a one-turn race, and it's also noteworthy that her best efforts last season came on the NYRA circuit.

RACE 8

I'm not really against Cadenza (#6), who would probably go favored in this Take the A Train if it stays on the turf. She won her only turf start last summer and has clearly improved since then with a string of solid efforts at Turfway through the winter. She lost nothing in defeat last time behind Hen Party, who came back to finish a good third behind Cy Fair in a tough edition of the G3 Mamzelle. I just prefer the rival drawn right to her outside, Just Philtored (#7). She took to turf very well when she won a stakes at Colonial last August, beating a trio of next-out winners including the solid turf sprinter Hark Theangelssing. She then tried the G3 Matron and didn't run badly at all, not getting the most comfortable trip. She broke well but was reined in to sit behind the leaders in a pocket. She tried to angle out in upper stretch but had no room and altered back inside. She ran on decently late but was never fully clear while buried inside. She's subsequently run well on dirt, but I think she's a better turf sprinter. Michael Trombetta is 12 for 55 (22%, $2.19 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years.

RACE 9

At most 5 will run here with Bull by the Horns reported to scratch. Growth Equity (#3) looks pretty formidable at first glance even as he steps up off a maiden win, since this just didn't come up as a particularly tough edition of the race. However, this colt was not Chad Brown's first choice for the race. He had initially pointed Ottinho and Tariff Mindset here, but both were forced to miss this start with issues. Growth Equity will sub in, but even Chad seems to acknowledge that this horse may not be ideally suited to the 9-furlong distance, and I get that sense watching him run. He can win, but I'm not betting him at a very short price. Last time was the time to have Lexington winner Trendsetter (#1). His form heading into that race was a little better than it looks, but he got a perfect trip against a field of suspect quality. He also was running out of his backyard for a trainer who is very dangerous in Kentucky and much less so elsewhere. I think Talk to Me Jimmy (#5) is the horse to beat based on his Withers performance over this course and distance. He didn't run badly at all in the Wood Memorial considering the hot pace, and now he's landing in a spot that appears to set up better for him. Perhaps I'm reaching a bit trying to beat all three of these contenders, but I do think Gulfy (#6) is worth considering at a better price. I had felt this horse was better than the results he was achieving early on in George Weaver's barn. He got some trips and rides that were less than ideal. I liked his confidence-building win in February, out of which he got claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez. He was a game winner first off the claim for that barn last time, and the race has come back strong, with the 3 who finished directly behind him all improving in subsequent starts. He has to get 1 1/8 miles, but this barn has a knack for getting horses to stretch out, and I also felt he was one that wanted to go longer.

RACE 10

Between the two Chad Brown runners, I much prefer Right to Vote (#1). Some may be scared off by the lengthy layoff, but Chad Brown excels with these types. In some ways, it's a positive when they return from breaks this long because it displays intention to bring back horses that otherwise could have been sold or retired. The stats concur, as Chad is 13 for 49 (27%, $2.63 ROI) off layoffs of 420 days or greater over the last 5 years. He ran well to break his maiden in the summer of 2024, and then was in over his head in the Hill Prince. He'll be tough here if he's ready off the bench. Arkhipov (#3) doesn't do nearly as much for me. He was flattered by a fast pace and a bad field when he broke his maiden at Tampa two back. He's a big, lumbering sort who lacks much turn of foot, and that was apparent in his one-paced Keeneland effort last time. I would rather use an option like Blown Cover (#4) as my other horse in here. He has the tactical speed to get better position, and he's run well going longer in the past so I don't mind him stretching back out. He's a little cheaper than these, but he should have a good trip coming to him in a race lacking a clear pace scenario.

RACE 11

This maiden finale seems totally wide open. I suppose Ice House (#9) could wire the field if he takes to turf since he showed a ton of speed on debut. He has some turf pedigree, but he was carried by a rail bias on debut. On the positive side, Knicks Go is turning out to be a better turf influence than some might have expected. Super Dave (#5) is perhaps an even more intriguing second time starter as he returns from a layoff and ships in from Keeneland for Wesley Ward. This horse took a ton of money on debut at Saratoga last year, but I remember the DRF Clocker Report wasn't nearly as positive on him as the betting public, and he ran terribly. He was bobbling over the course, looking like he wasn't handling the turf. He's working well for his return at Keeneland but doing so on dirt. I wonder if he's really a grass horse. Sammy C Note (#4) is perfectly logical as he returns for a new barn. He has solid turf sprint form from last year, but he's less likely to move forward than some of the younger 3-year-olds in this field. High Leverage (#1) turns back in distance after three two-turn attempts. He had a rough trip on debut, but then didn't run that poorly when he came to New York to face state-breds for the first time. I suspect he'll appreciate going shorter as he switches into Keri Brion's barn. He's shown a lot of speed in his workouts and even going back to his 9 4/5 sales work, but they don't seem to let him show that speed in the afternoons. That may change here. There does appear to be plenty of pace in this race, so I also want to use Daisy Doo (#3) as a potential closer. He was compromised by slow paces in a couple of starts last year, and ran well against a decent field second time out. He returns as a new gelding while getting a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano.