TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Saturday, June 14
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
The two favorites in this maiden claiming opener don't do much for me. Farm House (#1) gets needed class relief and has run a couple races that could win here, but she's not the most reliable sort and is coming off a poor effort. She also strikes me as a filly that doesn't love racing inside of horses, so the rail draw may not be ideal. Calling an Audible (#2) really didn't have an excuse last time when she had dead aim at the winner and just hung in the late stages. She's had her chances as an 0 for 15 maiden but she obviously fits here on her best form. I want to try to beat this pair with Immigration Law (#3). It took this filly a few starts to figure things out, but she put forth a solid effort two back when settling for second behind the improving Ah Ca Ira. She wasn't as successful last time, but got shuffled back from her rail draw and was running on too late. She has more early speed than that and can post a minor upset if she works out a better trip this time.
Fair Value:
#3 IMMIGRATION LAW, 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
Tiberius Mercurius (#2) could vie for favoritism here on the basis of his narrow loss as the $12,500 level last month. He finished in a photo with Khafre that day, lunging at the winner right at the wire, and the field may have been slightly tougher than this one. His 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure arguably does make him the horse to beat, but he achieved that performance going 1 1/8 miles around two turns. Now he's being asked to cut back to a one-turn mile, and I'm a little concerned that he may get outrun early in a race that doesn't appear to feature much early speed. I much prefer main rival Winter's Ghost (#1), who may be finding the right spot as he makes his third start off a layoff. He returned from a four-month layoff in early May, and flashed his typical early speed before fading in an unusually fast race for the level. He moved up in class against tougher last time, but was curiously wrangled off the pace by Flavien Prat, who rarely takes speed away from horses when they break well. Winter's Ghost still ran on strongly late despite the unfamiliar trip, finishing like a horse who might have had more to offer. He figures to go back to aggressive tactics here under Ricardo Santana, and should play out as the main speed from this inside post, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates. In my view, he is clearly the most likely winner. The other primary horse I would consider is He's Got This (#7), who has been claimed back by the same owners who had him two starts ago, this time with Ilkay Kantarmaci instead of Jamie Ness. His form has tailed off over the winter, but he is dropping to the lowest level of his career. I could also throw in Active Duty (#8) if he's a fair price. He has generally met weaker company in conditioned claiming races, but was game to win last time and can get a piece of this. I'll mostly use them underneath my top pick.
Fair Value:
#1 WINTER'S GHOST, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
Trade Imbalance (#7) is one of two Linda Rice trainees who figure to attract support in this conditioned claimer. He hasn't ever really panned out after a debut win at Saratoga two years ago, but he showed some signs of life last time when making his second start off a very long layoff. He set a fast pace before fading at a mile, and now cuts back in distance in his first start off the claim for Rice. I slightly prefer him to Rice's other runner Macaw (#9), who was chasing wide against a minor rail bias last time. Yet he's never gotten back to the two fast races he ran for sharp barns early in his career. I didn't think he was getting much class relief here despite the drop in claiming price. Prince of Truth (#6) is hard to trust since getting claimed by a low-percentage barn, but he is dropping down in class out of two much tougher races. I didn't love the way he was finishing last time, but he was extremely wide on the turn. The price should be fair enough to throw him in. My top pick is Brave Bear (#8). This colt put in a gritty effort last time when contesting a fast pace every step of the way and refusing to yield until the very late stages. He had been banging his head against the wall facing tougher company for much of the winter, but seemed to respond favorably to the class relief last time. He's the one horse I want out of that race at this level, as a few of them return in this spot. I actually like the slight stretch-out in distance, and the outside post should benefit him.
Fair Value:
#8 BRAVE BEAR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10
If this race stays on turf, Cousin Ed (#12) has to be considered the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time. Yet he got a great trip and is now drawn in the far outside post, so I'm hardly keen to accept a short price on him. Orie (#9) may do better after breaking inward in that same race. I still have some doubts about his overall ability, and would have liked to see him finish a little better after that troubled start. First time starter Maybern (#3) has some pedigree for turf sprinting on her dam's side even though Bernardini isn't the best influence. Linda Rice has decent statistics with maiden claiming firsters, and this one looks relatively well prepared for the debut. I want to give another chance to Cada Dia Mejor (#11) if this stays on grass. He was pretty interesting getting on turf last time, and things just didn't work out for him. He acted up in the gate before the start, then got keen during the race, fighting restraint early. He appeared to be handling the turf well when moving up into the far turn, but was unable to see out the distance late. Cutting back should work for him, and I still think he has some upside on this surface. I have to give him one more chance at a price.
Fair Value:
#11 CADA DIA MAJOR, at 8-1 or greater
Friday, June 13
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 4
Tazara (#4) figures to go off at a very short price once again despite disappointing as the 1-2 favorite in her U.S. debut last month. She secured the lead through moderate early fractions and just couldn't produce a kick in the lane, run down by the talented Creed's Gold. Supporters of Tazara will point to her strong European form as evidence that she can do better in her second American start. She progressed markedly at the end of her 2024 campaign, producing back-to-back career-best performances last October, culminating with a strong second in a Group 3 sprint. Yet those good efforts came out of nowhere, and it's no guarantee she'll be able to recapture that form in a new barn. Her Chad Brown stablemate Risk Threshold (#6) could also attract support here, but the presence of Tazara feels like a problem for a mare who has done all of her best running from the front end. Tazara showed herself to be a frontrunner in France, and she used that same style when she came to the U.S. so it's hard to imagine Flavien Prat rating her this time. Risk Threshold probably is forced to sit a stalking trip here, and I don't want to take her using a running style that has never worked for her. My top pick isGolden Canary (#2), who finished third just behind Tazara last time, but I think she has a very good chance to turn the tables on that foe. Golden Canary actually broke well in that return to turf sprinting last time, but she was quickly reined in to stalk the pace. However, being drawn in the middle of the pack, that lack of aggression resulted in her getting shuffled all the way back to last by the time the field hit the turn. She actually did very well to nearly get up for second as the only horse to make up a significant amount of ground in the lane. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure was a new career-best number for her, and it appears that she is just coming into top form now as a 4-year-old. She has proven in prior starts that she doesn't have to come from that far back, and I would expect Irad Ortiz to place her in the pocket behind the two Chad Brown rivals here. If she's within striking distance at the quarter pole, I expect her to run them down.
Fair Value:
#2 GOLDEN CANARY, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 5
I don't have a major argument against likely favorite Dancin Jane (#7), who will obviously be tough to beat if she returns in top form. Unlike most in this field, she has already run well over turf, just missing in her maiden claiming debut last summer at Saratoga before fading when moved up against maiden special weight foes last time. However, now she's returning from a layoff, and Linda Rice is just 1 for 17 off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years. She picks up Irad for the return, which should only drive down her price further. She's the one to beat, but this is not the kind of horse that I'm afraid to take a shot against. The few others in here with turf form do little for me, though Addagirl Addie (#2) is at least getting into a live barn as she returns to this surface. I was just more interested in some first time turfers, and this seems like the right kind of race to try such a horse. Fifi La Fume (#1) isn't by a particularly good turf sire in McKinzie, but she has some grass breeding on the dam's side. She looks like a horse that should handle turf, and she has been significantly improving over the course of her recent starts. Rudy Rodriguez just has very poor statistics with this move. My top pick is Lucy Playa (#5), who appears to finally be getting on the right surface. She was entered for turf in each of her first two starts, both of which were rained off the grass. She clearly doesn't handle the dirt at all, but she's by a good turf sire out of a dam who was a 5-time winner on grass. She has a right to be a completely different horse on this surface, and she's getting a significant rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this start.
Fair Value:
#5 LUCY PLAYA, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
In a race where a few key players have to prove they can get back to their best form, at least Twenty Four Mamba (#4) is coming off two of the best efforts of his career. This horse had briefly hinted at possessing this kind of ability two winters ago before losing that form for much of the 2024 season. He finally came back around this spring, and has now reeled off two victories in a row. He proved that his victory off the claim for sharp connections on Wood Memorial Day was no fluke when he came right back to win against at this level last time for new trainer Tom Morley. He worked out a perfect trip but nevertheless finished strongly while earning an excellent 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Some may be skeptical that he can win right back second off the claim, but Tom Morley has had inordinate success with this move. He has won with 5 of his last 9 first off the claim winners when they've run back second off the claim, for a $5.94 ROI. Top Gunner (#3) could play out as his main rival if able to regain his early speed, since there doesn't appear to be much pace signed on here. However, he was pretty disappointing at Churchill last time, and that Jan. 16 victory at Aqueduct is increasingly looking like a total outlier in his past performances. I want to go in a different direction with Light Man (#7), who returns from a layoff. This horse's TimeformUS Speed Figures kept improving last season even as he moved up in class. He landed in a tough spot when chasing home future graded stakes winner Federal Judge three back. He then beat a solid field in the Hudson before getting the wrong trip when last seen in that NYSS stakes. He got involved in a very fast pace that fell apart and fought on in upper stretch before tiring. He still was assigned a pace-upgraded 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, which makes him a strong fit in this spot. He's drawn well outside of other speed and looks like he's been adequately prepared for the return.
Fair Value:
#7 LIGHT MAN, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Among those with turf form, there really isn't anyone to fear in this maiden claimer. I suppose Purest Performance (#1)is the one to beat off her last race where she finished a good third when making her second start off the layoff. She just couldn't quite see out the distance after traveling well to the quarter pole. The slight turnback to one-mile should help her, but she's still an 0 for 16 maiden for some lower profile connections, so I don't want to take too short a price on her. Backcheck (#6) appears to have some upside in her second start off a layoff. She's getting needed class relief as she drops in for a tag for the first time. It just isn't clear if she has much ability. She was vanned off after closing belatedly on debut last year. She didn't do much running in her return last time, but she was wide on the turns against a better field than this. I just have a crazy alternative idea with a horse who figures to be a huge price. Secret Fire (#3) has obviously shown very little ability on dirt, racing uncompetitively in her four prior starts. However, watching her replays, she strikes me as a horse whose true calling is the grass. She has the high-stepping action of a turf horse, and appears to have physical attributes that should be well-suited to grass. Her pedigree supports that notion, since she's by 13% turf route sire Flameaway with further turf influences in her female family. These aren't connections that win much, and she may lack the ability to compete on this circuit even if she shows a preference for turf. However, she's going to be a gigantic price, and this feels like the right kind of race to take a shot with a ridiculous horse like this, especially one that I feel confident will love the surface.
Fair Value:
#3 SECRET FIRE, at 10-1 or greater
