TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary take on this race is that Social Hour (#6) is beatable. He's run well in several starts at this level, but he's finishing second in three of his last four starts without an apparent excuse. The last two times he was the beneficiary of track biases, and he's unlikely to have that kind of factor working in his favor here. Among the short prices, I much prefer Oil Capital (#2), who turns back after just failing to get a mile last time. He dueled with Carvellian Quest, who came back to run poorly earlier this week but others from that field have validated the form. I do think sprinting is a better fit for this horse, but he may have to come from off the pace. I'm hoping that Uncle Jim (#4) can break from the gate a bit better, because that has been his Achilles heel in several recent starts. He again was off a step slowly last time before rushing up to chase the pace while racing wide. That was one of many days that featured a rail bias so he ran a lot better than the result might suggest. I'm intrigued to see what he can do for a new barn that rarely claims horses.

RACE 2

Mad Banker (#2) is the most likely winner after setting the pace while never on the rail last time. That was the first day of the rail bias period, though one of the few won by a horse who was also never inside. Cutting back to a mile could be key for him, since he ran very well when winning at this distance two back. He's the horse to beat, but I do think main rival Berning Beauty (#6) has a chance to upset if a couple of others push the early pace. The fractions were pretty slow in that Feb. 4 race and he was also wide against the bias, especially in the second half of the race. He has had more success around two turns, but he should get a better pace setup with this slight turnback. Charlie Baker's horses have run well at this meet and he's due to convert some of those seconds into wins.

RACE 3

I'm not trying to beat Emirates Road (#6), who just looks a cut above his rivals. He has faced significantly better competition since returning from a layoff last fall, and he hasn't even run that badly in a few of those losses. He was beaten by Donegal Surges and Be You, both stakes-caliber foes, in that Dec. 27 allowance, and last time he ran better than it looks when chasing wide against the track bias. He's dropping in class, but I don't view it as a major negative since he's running for $50k and was claimed for just $35k by these connections. They had a successful run with him, and now are just running him in a logical spot where he can win. The other dropdown to consider is Waitlist (#4), who was also against the rail bias last time. I wish he was a little more consistent on the way in, and his tendency to break a step slowly has hampered him in recent races.

RACE 4

The scratch of Princess Wadadli removes a key contender and the primary pacesetter from this race. Some may upgrade Top of the Table (#4) since she now looks like the main speed, but I thought she was on an advantageous rail last time and I'm not sure she's good enough. I'll stick with Graceful Rose (#1), who just seems like the best horse in this field. She won a starter allowance race last time and it's not clear that this is actually a tougher spot than that, especially considering the horse she beat came back to win. The other horse I would use is Redwineandwhiskey (#2), who was wide against a track bias two back and compromised by a speed bias last time. Though, I do think she's better on a sealed track.

RACE 5

Lady Meringue (#7) will take money by default merely because it's Linda Rice, but she's done little running in her prior starts against some very weak fields. I'm more interested in a couple of the 3-year-olds with more upside. My Girl Aubree (#2) showed speed and faded badly on debut. She was chasing outside against a rail bias, so I can forgive the effort, though I do wish she hadn't completely shut down in the lane. She's the one to catch, but I'm intrigued by Ishkabibble (#4) at a better price. If we take apart her PPs, she's better than she looks. She wasn't exactly outclassed by a better field than this on Jan. 11. She then broke poorly and was extremely wide against the rail bias two back. She again got off slowly last time and was pushed into an early backstretch move before understandably fading. She wants no part of a mile anyway. Now she's turning back and dropping significantly in class.

RACE 6

You have to respect a mare like Nic's Style (#1), who shows up every time and delivers. She's only finished out of the exacta once in her 12-start career, and that's when she returned from a layoff last fall. She hasn't won in over a year, but she's held her own against some stiff competition in recent starts. She did lose as the 2-5 favorite at Gulfstream last time, but Eclatant returned from a layoff looking like a major threat for the Grade 1 Madison. Nic's Style will be tough to deny if she brings that form north against this field. Irish Maxima (#2) is obviously a candidate to bounce back second off the layoff after she, too, lost as an odds-on favorite last time. She just got run off her feet by a sharp longshot. I don't want to use the mud as an excuse since she's loved wet tracks in the past. The fact that she's shipping back here is probably a good sign. I'll take a shot against these two with Atarah (#4), who actually defeated Irish Maxima when second at this level last time. She was outrun early, but made a nice run to get up for second as the only horse to close any ground. She also ran well two back when easily gaining forward position into a slow pace. I expect her to get a trip similar to that one with less speed signed on here. Linda Rice has her in great form right now and she may finally be a fair price with Flavien off.

RACE 7

This race has really fallen apart after 3 scratches take out some major palyers. Likely favorite Ignite the Light (#1) beat N2X foes while riding a bias last time, and he's not quite as appealing as his price might suggest based on his prior form. Even after the scratches, there are still 3 speeds and one closer left in this race. I'll take the late runner Bramito (#6). He may not be quite as good as some of these rivals on their best days, but he's fairly consistent and is always dangerous when he gets some pace ahead of him. He can also sit closer to the pace in smaller fields when they don't go quickly up front, as he displayed in the JUne 8 victory last year. He also won despite racing on a dead rail last time, so he ran better than it looks off the claim for this underrated trainer. 

RACE 8

Playing Tricks (#3) will probably go favored here as he ships up from Florida for Chad Brown. He's trying winners for the first time, but ran well in both starts against maiden foes. He did need plenty of time between those races, but it was a good sign that he built upon his Aqueduct debut when he returned at Gulfstream last time out. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a contender here, though I have some questions about the overall quality of the field he defeated. This is obviously a step up in class, and Chad Brown doesn't have the best statistics with these types. Land d'Oro (#1)seems like a candidate to rebound after he was chasing wide against a track bias last time. I don't want to give him too much credit for that effort since he was sitting on top of a slow pace, but it was dominated by rail runners. Reynolds Channel (#5) is another who was negatively affected by the prolonged rail bias in his last start. He was chasing outside throughout in a race dominated the frontrunner. He had previously shown improvement off the claim for Amelia Green when beating starter allowance foes two back. A return to that form gives him a strong chance here. My top pick is Run Quiet Run Fast (#2), who is likely to be the biggest price of those compromised by the track bias last time. Not only was he hung 3 to 4-wide around both turns but he was also disadvantaged by a slow pace that favored the forwardly placed horses. He never got involved, but he really had no chance given his trip. This horse had shown some ability in Kentucky late last year, and seemed to handle a mile pretty well when he closed for third at this level at Ellis Park in August. He's since gotten a significant trainer switch to Tom Morley, and this should mark his first start over a fair racetrack for that new barn.

RACE 9

I have little interesting in trying to beat heavy favorite Golden Symphony (#2). He's simply better than these rivals as he drops in class. He was claimed for $30k, so dropping down to $20k isn't some kind of fire sale. This is the right distance for him, and he's supposed to be forward in a race that lacks much early speed. When the main rival looks like Shipsational (#8), who hasn't won in 4 1/2 years, I feel pretty good about this favorite taking them all the way.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not trying to beat Growth Equity (#3), who ships up from Florida and doesn't catch a particularly tough race for the level. He showed talent when finishing second on debut last summer at Saratoga, and did everything but win when he returned from a layoff in February at Gulfstream. He rallied gamely between horses to just miss. The form exiting that race has been mixed, but the speed figure was strong and he'll be tough to beat if he merely repeats that effort. Perhaps the biggest danger could be Fightforallegiance (#5), who deserves another chance stretching out after keeping some strong company in his last couple of starts.

RACE 2

My primary opinion in this race is that I don't want any part of Good Skate (#2). From the drop in class, to the trainer switch, to the fast workouts off the layoff, the vibes around this horse are that the owner's looking to get rid of him. He is the class of the field based on his prior form, but he didn't return as nearly the same horse for an abbreviated 2025 campaign, and I expect that he's deteriorated further following a subsequent layoff. Military Road (#1) is the Linda Rice runner that will go here after the scratch of Apalta. He obviously has prior form that will beat this field and was wide against a bias last time, and is now first off the claim for Linda Rice. I want a horse who is in slightly better form, and the horse in the best form of them all is Come to Papa (#6), who seeks his third victory in a row. He ran a lot better than it might appear when breaking his maiden, since he beat a track bias that day. He followed it up with a solid win stretching out to this distance, and horses have returned from that race to improve their speed figures. He's another with the tactical speed to work out the right trip.

RACE 3

I want the class droppers as opposed to the fillies stepping up off maiden wins. Cravings (#3) is the horse to beat after just missing at the $40k N2L level last time. She got bumped at the start but worked out a pretty good trip thereafter. A repeat of that first start for the Brad Cox barn will make her tough. I just thought Belloro (#4) had enough early trouble in that race to suggest that she could turn the tables here with a cleaner start. She really took the worst of it, breaking slowly and then getting steadied back. She made up some ground, but was left with too much to do. She has to break better because the start has been an issue twice in a row now, but there is supposed to be pace in here to set up her late run.

RACE 4

The two horses with the best form coming into this race are to be ridden by Dalila Rivera and Heman Harkie, two jockeys that rarely ride favorites, so I wonder how the public will approach the betting. Those horses, Miss Lao (#5) and My First Love (#6), both make sense but I'm not keen to take short prices on either one. Miss Lao has been knocking on the door at this level but perhaps should have won by now, whereas My First Love lacks the early speed to get position going these sprint distances. That makes me want to upgrade Maggie T (#4) even though she ran so poorly against these rivals last time. That was a muddy track and she really can't stand up on wet surfaces. She won in gate to wire fashion on fast going two back, albeit with the help of a track bias. I think Best Impression (#7) should have a better trip coming to her. She almost closed down Maggie T at this level two back and then regressed 8 days later off the layoff for a new barn. However, she was competing at a higher level that day and was never inside while racing against a rail bias. She's better than that and should rebound here.

RACE 5

A. P. Slingshot (#7) is clearly the horse to beat after just missing at this distance two back behind next-out winner Autumn's Turn. Some might want to hold it against her that she regressed last time, but she was always wide against the rail bias. In my opinion, she ran much better than Kat Stormy (#5) in that race, since the Mott trainee did eventually work her way over to the rail whereas A. P. Slingshot was always wide. They're logical, but I have an alternative opinion with one of the up and coming 3-year-olds. Tristar Fury (#8) has clearly been a work in progress. She was totally outrun going 6 furlongs on debut, and it also didn't help that she was taken wide over that rail-biased surface. She appears to want no part of sprinting, and the extra furlong obviously helped her out a bit last time. She again had no early speed, but was finishing well late before galloping out well. I like her finally getting out to a mile here, and it's not like she has to improve that much to beat the favorites.

RACE 6

Neigh Baby (#7) makes plenty of sense as the favorite. He ran pretty well in all three starts as a 2-year-old before getting some time off. He never made much of an impact going a mile off the layoff last time, but he was chasing outside against the rail bias. The runbacks from that race have been pretty strong, and it's not like he's meeting the toughest field here. I expect him to fare better on the slight turnback, especially now that he's second off the layoff. Moon On Fire (#3) is mildly interesting after chasing Napoleon Solo on debut last year. However, this barn doesn't have the best statistics off layoffs. The only alternative I strongly considered is Dixie Hex (#6), who debuts for Ray Handal. He has some decent workouts showing, but those drills match this trainer's Covert Affair, who disappointed at a short price on Thursday.

RACE 7

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this allowance optional claimer, sending out the two likely favorites. Inefficiency (#4) seems like the horse to beat coming off a 6-length debut win for which she earned a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She picks up Flavien Prat, who should make use of her ample early speed in a race that doesn't feature much pace. The drawback is that Chad Brown doesn't have particularly strong statistics with these types. Over the last 5 years, he is 2 for 25 (8%, $0.24 ROI) with 4-year-old and older debut winners making their second career starts, and 0 for 14 in dirt races within that sample. I still prefer her to her stablemate Filly Freedom (#2), who returns from a brief layoff. She was no match for a better group in the Grade 2 Mother Goose when last seen, so I can excuse that effort. I'm just not thrilled with her prior form, since she took advantage of a rail bias against a very weak field when she broke her maiden. I'm Buzzy (#5) is mildly interesting first off the claim for Linda Rice, but I wish there was a little more pace in here to set up her late run. I do like her turning back slightly to this one-turn mile. The horse I really want to bet is Metfardeeh (#6). She was disappointing in her first attempt against winners last time, but she was trying to stretch out to 9 furlongs and it didn't seem like the added distance really worked for her. She had broken her maiden going a mile with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure and I believe that's a better representation of her ability. Notably that's the only prior race in which she did not draw the rail post position until this spot, where she again drew the far outside post. She seems like a filly who does her best running outside of horses, and she figures to get her preferred trip this time.

RACE 8

The horse I'm most against among the short prices is Counter Move (#2). He was supposed to have broken his maiden by now, losing as the favorite in 4 of his last 5 starts. There's other speed in here to keep him company up front, and he's a bit sketchy to see out the 7 furlongs anyway. Gualillo (#3) would be a deserving favorite here if his last race wasn't showing. His form prior to that, achieved against tougher company, had been superior to this field. However, the drop in class down to $20k last time looked a little suspicious, and his total non-effort makes you wonder if it was indicative of a problem. He's now first off the claim for new connections, but he's got Prat and will probably be overbet again. Army Proud (#1) is a solid, consistent option, but he's had plenty of chances at or around this level. I expect him to run well, but I didn't have much interest in betting him to win. My top pick is Sports Hero (#6), who should really appreciate this turnback. A mile was just too far for him last time, especially when he was aggressively ridden to press the pace. He's been a tough horse to ride with blinkers, getting keen in many of his races last year. However, they took that equipment off last time and he seemed a bit easier to maneuver. I'm hoping he's finally able to settle and finish this time, because he really hasn't run that much worse than Army Proud and he'll be a much better price.